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Prediction for CME (2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-18T17:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8710/-1
CME Note: Clear indication of CME in AIA 171 and 193: opening/rising field lines starting around 16:30Z, followed by dimmings, two-ribbon flare, outflows. The CME was fast and bright, and also had a 360-degree halo/asymmetric shock structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-21T15:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-21T21:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Jun 19 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar Activity was at moderate levels. Region 2371 (N12E33,
Ekc/ beta-gamma-delta) produced a long-duration, M3/ 1n flare at 18/1736
UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep and Tenflare (2300 sfu). The
region grew and increased magnetic complexity. An asymetric, full-halo
coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
at 18/1724 UTC. Analysis and a WSA-Enlil model run indicate a likely
glancing blow at Earth late on 21 Jun/early 22 Jun.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Jun 20 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 20-Jun 22 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 20-Jun 22 2015

            Jun 20     Jun 21     Jun 22
00-03UT        1          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        1          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          2          4     
09-12UT        1          2          4     
12-15UT        1          2          3     
15-18UT        2          2          3     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          3          2

Lead Time: 62.28 hour(s)
Difference: -5.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-06-19T01:23Z

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